MLB
Shohei Ohtani
#1 - Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 Topps Chrome Baseball (2024)
Gold Refractor /50Model A: Deterministic
Print Run50
Verified Sightings7
Publicly Remaining43
Model B: Bayesian
Visibility Factor (f)32%
P(Still Unpulled)100.0%
Expected Remaining33.1
Confidence Score
Medium (51/100)
Coverage: 14 | Sources: 30 | Maturity: 7
$140.22
Avg Sale Price
$106.52 - $187.89
Price Range
12
Recent Sales
Price History (Last 60 Days)
- Average
- Sale Price
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Shohei Ohtani Gold Refractor #/50 | $110.70 | 1/22/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Shohei Ohtani Gold Refractor #/50 | $148.97 | 1/17/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Shohei Ohtani Gold Refractor #/50 | $107.38 | 1/4/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Shohei Ohtani Gold Refractor #/50 | $151.44 | 12/29/2025 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Shohei Ohtani Gold Refractor #/50 | $157.64 | 12/26/2025 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
PSA: 1,502 (86.7%)
BGS: 230 (13.3%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant
PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
1,502
Total Graded
255
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
705
PSA 9 (Mint)
17.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
255
17.0%
PSA 9
705
46.9%
PSA 8.5
120
8.0%
PSA 8
180
12.0%
PSA 7
150
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
-28
-1.9%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
230
Total Graded
3
BGS 10 (Black Label)
64
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
27.8%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
3
1.3%
BGS 10(Pristine)
8
3.5%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
64
27.8%
BGS 9(Mint)
97
42.2%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
26
11.3%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
27
11.7%
BGS 7.5-
5
2.2%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$544
$408-$816
BGS 10
$272
$204-$340
BGS 9.5
$136
$102-$170
BGS 9
$82
$68-$102
BGS 8.5
$61
$48-$75
BGS 8
$48
$34-$61
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
240
Total Graded
29
SGC 10 (Pristine)
63
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
12%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
29(12.1%)
SGC 9.5
63(26.3%)
SGC 9
90(37.5%)
SGC 8.5
34(14.2%)
SGC 8
21(8.8%)
SGC 7-
3(1.3%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$193
$152 - $242
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$124
$97 - $152
SGC 9 (Mint)
$97
$76 - $117
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$76
$62 - $90
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$62
$48 - $76
SGC 7 (NM)
$48
$35 - $62
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$172
Expected Value
$49 - $210
Value Range
+$70
Potential Gain
-$91
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$213
Expected Value
+$18
Expected Profit
+9%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Consider Carefully
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$491
+$296
PSA 9
35%
$252
+$57
PSA 8
35%
$182
$-13
PSA 7
18%
$154
$-41
PSA 6
7%
$133
$-62
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Marginal ROI of 9%. Consider grading only if you need authentication or plan to hold long-term. Break-even requires 10.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.