Matvei Michkov
#31 - Philadelphia Flyers
2024-25 SP Authentic (2025)
BaseUnnumbered Card
Print run unknown
0
copies documented so far
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced
Model A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,669 (66.9%)
BGS: 826 (33.1%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant
PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
1,669
Total Graded
400
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
817
PSA 9 (Mint)
24.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
400
24.0%
PSA 9
817
49.0%
PSA 8.5
133
8.0%
PSA 8
200
12.0%
PSA 7
166
9.9%
PSA 6 & Below
-180
-10.8%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
826
Total Graded
6
BGS 10 (Black Label)
191
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
23.1%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
6
0.7%
BGS 10(Pristine)
18
2.2%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
191
23.1%
BGS 9(Mint)
315
38.1%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
105
12.7%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
93
11.3%
BGS 7.5-
98
11.9%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$448
$336-$672
BGS 10
$224
$168-$280
BGS 9.5
$112
$84-$140
BGS 9
$67
$56-$84
BGS 8.5
$50
$39-$62
BGS 8
$39
$28-$50
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
616
Total Graded
79
SGC 10 (Pristine)
139
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
13%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
79(12.8%)
SGC 9.5
139(22.6%)
SGC 9
241(39.1%)
SGC 8.5
74(12%)
SGC 8
71(11.5%)
SGC 7-
12(1.9%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$484
$381 - $606
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$311
$242 - $381
SGC 9 (Mint)
$242
$190 - $294
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$190
$156 - $225
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$156
$121 - $190
SGC 7 (NM)
$121
$87 - $156
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$32
Expected Value
$9 - $39
Value Range
+$13
Potential Gain
-$17
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$39
Expected Value
$-42
Expected Profit
-52%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$90
+$9
PSA 9
35%
$46
$-35
PSA 8
35%
$34
$-47
PSA 7
18%
$28
$-53
PSA 6
7%
$24
$-57
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Negative expected ROI of -52%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.