SOCCER
Lionel Messi
#1 - Inter Miami
2024 Topps MLS Soccer (2024)
Gold /50Cards Remaining
Good availability
50
Total Print Run
6
Documented
44
Still Available
6 seen (12.0%)44 remaining (88.0%)
6 of 50 copies have been documented.
44 copies could still be pulled from packs!
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced
Model A: Deterministic
Print Run50
Verified Sightings6
Publicly Remaining44
Model B: Bayesian
Visibility Factor (f)29%
P(Still Unpulled)100.0%
Expected Remaining34.8
Confidence Score
Medium (48/100)
Coverage: 12 | Sources: 30 | Maturity: 6
$112.26
Avg Sale Price
$0.00 - $495.00
Price Range
50
Recent Sales
eBay Price History
Last 60 days of sales data0.0%
3 sales tracked$0
Low
$112
Average
$0
High
0
Change
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Topps Chrome MLS Inserts, S/N Parallels, & Refractors - 50% Volume Discount | $1.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024 Topps Now MLS 28 MARINO HINESTROZA COLUMBUS CREW ROOKE RC Only 130 Made | $1.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024 Topps MLS Brian White Gold Uncommon /50 | $1.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024 Topps Chrome MLS Prodigies - Refractors & Inserts You Pick Your Card | $1.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| Cole Bassett 2025 Topps Chrome MLS Gold Wave Refractor /50 SP | $4.25 | 3/15/2026 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 523 (56.1%)
BGS: 409 (43.9%)
Market Preference:Evenly Split
Both grading services are popular for this card. Choose based on your preference.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
523
Total Graded
94
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
198
PSA 9 (Mint)
18.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
94
18.0%
PSA 9
198
37.9%
PSA 8.5
41
7.8%
PSA 8
62
11.9%
PSA 7
52
9.9%
PSA 6 & Below
35
6.7%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
409
Total Graded
4
BGS 10 (Black Label)
90
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
22.0%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
4
1.0%
BGS 10(Pristine)
9
2.2%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
90
22.0%
BGS 9(Mint)
152
37.2%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
58
14.2%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
54
13.2%
BGS 7.5-
42
10.3%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$520
$390-$780
BGS 10
$260
$195-$325
BGS 9.5
$130
$98-$163
BGS 9
$78
$65-$98
BGS 8.5
$59
$46-$72
BGS 8
$46
$33-$59
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
476
Total Graded
62
SGC 10 (Pristine)
120
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
13%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
62(13%)
SGC 9.5
120(25.2%)
SGC 9
176(37%)
SGC 8.5
67(14.1%)
SGC 8
48(10.1%)
SGC 7-
3(0.6%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$448
$352 - $560
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$288
$224 - $352
SGC 9 (Mint)
$224
$176 - $272
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$176
$144 - $208
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$144
$112 - $176
SGC 7 (NM)
$112
$80 - $144
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$138
Expected Value
$39 - $168
Value Range
+$56
Potential Gain
-$73
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$171
Expected Value
+$4
Expected Profit
+2%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Consider Carefully
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$393
+$226
PSA 9
35%
$202
+$35
PSA 8
35%
$146
$-21
PSA 7
18%
$123
$-44
PSA 6
7%
$107
$-60
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Marginal ROI of 2%. Consider grading only if you need authentication or plan to hold long-term. Break-even requires 10.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.