Umbreon
#197 - Dark
Obsidian Flames (2023)
BaseUnnumbered Card
Print run unknown
0
copies documented so far
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced
Model A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
$7.95
Avg Sale Price
$0.99 - $21.86
Price Range
3
Recent Sales
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 515 (35.2%)
BGS: 949 (64.8%)
Market Preference:BGS Dominant
BGS is the preferred grading service for this card. BGS 9.5s may command premium prices.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
515
Total Graded
103
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
180
PSA 9 (Mint)
20.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
103
20.0%
PSA 9
180
35.0%
PSA 8.5
41
8.0%
PSA 8
61
11.8%
PSA 7
51
9.9%
PSA 6 & Below
38
7.4%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
949
Total Graded
5
BGS 10 (Black Label)
238
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
25.1%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
5
0.5%
BGS 10(Pristine)
23
2.4%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
238
25.1%
BGS 9(Mint)
361
38.0%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
122
12.9%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
98
10.3%
BGS 7.5-
102
10.7%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$1,080
$810-$1620
BGS 10
$540
$405-$675
BGS 9.5
$270
$203-$338
BGS 9
$162
$135-$203
BGS 8.5
$122
$95-$149
BGS 8
$95
$68-$122
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
695
Total Graded
88
SGC 10 (Pristine)
144
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
13%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
88(12.7%)
SGC 9.5
144(20.7%)
SGC 9
248(35.7%)
SGC 8.5
88(12.7%)
SGC 8
74(10.6%)
SGC 7-
53(7.6%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$448
$352 - $560
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$288
$224 - $352
SGC 9 (Mint)
$224
$176 - $272
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$176
$144 - $208
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$144
$112 - $176
SGC 7 (NM)
$112
$80 - $144
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$10
Expected Value
$3 - $12
Value Range
+$4
Potential Gain
-$5
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$14
Expected Value
$-49
Expected Profit
-78%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$32
$-31
PSA 9
35%
$16
$-47
PSA 8
35%
$12
$-51
PSA 7
18%
$10
$-53
PSA 6
7%
$9
$-54
Negative expected ROI of -78%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.