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Luka Doncic card

Luka Doncic

#77 - Dallas Mavericks

2024-25 Prizm Basketball (2025)

Base

Unnumbered Card

Print run unknown

0
copies documented so far
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced

Model A: Deterministic

Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A

Model B: Bayesian

Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.

Confidence Score

Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0

Market Sales Data

$2.67
Avg Sale Price
$0.99 - $8.99
Price Range
21
Recent Sales
TitlePriceDateLink
2024-25 Prizm Monopoly Basketball BASE/INSERTS/PARALLELS (BUY 3 GET 1) You Pick$1.143/15/2026View
2024-25 Panini Prizm Basketball Monopoly Base Cards - YOU PICK!! NBA$1.493/15/2026View
2024-25 Panini Prizm Basketball - Base, Rookies, Inserts, Parallels, Pink Ice A1$1.993/15/2026View
2024-25 Panini Prizm Base Complete Your Set You U Pick$0.993/15/2026View
Luka Doncic 2024-25 Panini Prizm Monopoly #49 Base Set Dallas Mavericks$1.493/15/2026View
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,544 (75.8%)
BGS: 492 (24.2%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant

PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.

Grade Equivalency Guide:

  • BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
  • BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
  • BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
  • BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)

PSA Population Report

Demo Data
1,544
Total Graded
293
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
679
PSA 9 (Mint)
19.0%
PSA 10 Rate

Grade Distribution

PSA 10
293
19.0%
PSA 9
679
44.0%
PSA 8.5
123
8.0%
PSA 8
185
12.0%
PSA 7
154
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
-13
-0.8%

Estimated Graded Values

PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25

* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.

View on PSA Registry

BGS Population Report

Demo Data
492
Total Graded
4
BGS 10 (Black Label)
140
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
28.5%
BGS 9.5+ Rate

Grade Distribution

BGS 10(Black Label)
4
0.8%
BGS 10(Pristine)
13
2.6%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
140
28.5%
BGS 9(Mint)
184
37.4%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
71
14.4%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
51
10.4%
BGS 7.5-
29
5.9%

Estimated Graded Values

BGS 10BL
$592
$444-$888
BGS 10
$296
$222-$370
BGS 9.5
$148
$111-$185
BGS 9
$89
$74-$111
BGS 8.5
$67
$52-$81
BGS 8
$52
$37-$67

* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.

View on Beckett Grading

SGC Population Report

Demo Data
634
Total Graded
80
SGC 10 (Pristine)
130
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
13%
SGC 10 Rate

Grade Distribution

SGC 10
80(12.6%)
SGC 9.5
130(20.5%)
SGC 9
240(37.9%)
SGC 8.5
80(12.6%)
SGC 8
67(10.6%)
SGC 7-
37(5.8%)
View on SGC Registry

SGC Estimated Graded Values

SGC 10 (Pristine)
$412
$323 - $515
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$265
$206 - $323
SGC 9 (Mint)
$206
$162 - $250
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$162
$132 - $191
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$132
$103 - $162
SGC 7 (NM)
$103
$74 - $132

* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.

Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)

Predicted Outcomes

PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate

Value Analysis

$3
Expected Value
$1 - $4
Value Range
+$1
Potential Gain
-$2
Potential Loss

BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.

Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$4
Expected Value
$-54
Expected Profit
-93%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended

Cost Breakdown

$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance

Predicted Outcomes

PSA 10
5%
$9
$-49
PSA 9
35%
$5
$-53
PSA 8
35%
$3
$-55
PSA 7
18%
$3
$-55
PSA 6
7%
$3
$-55

Negative expected ROI of -93%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.

Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.

Verified Sightings

No verified sightings yet

Community Sentiment

How community odds have shifted over time for active predictions on this card.

Will Luka Doncic BGS 9.5 to PSA 10 crossover success rate exceed 40%?

Sentiment data will appear as votes come in

Will Luka Doncic PSA 10 average sale price increase by 15%+ in the next 30 days?

Sentiment data will appear as votes come in

Partner Market Odds

Live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi for NBA events that may impact card values.

Partner data from Polymarket & Kalshi. SlabdeX does not facilitate external trading.