Luka Doncic
#77 - Dallas Mavericks
2024-25 Flawless Basketball (2025)
BaseModel A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
$52.21
Avg Sale Price
$36.17 - $62.39
Price Range
10
Recent Sales
Price History (Last 60 Days)
- Average
- Sale Price
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Luka Doncic Base #/50 | $47.09 | 1/26/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Luka Doncic Base #/50 | $61.38 | 1/19/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Luka Doncic Base #/50 | $36.17 | 1/12/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Luka Doncic Base #/50 | $42.15 | 1/9/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Luka Doncic Base #/50 | $50.99 | 1/1/2026 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,560 (70.3%)
BGS: 660 (29.7%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant
PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
1,560
Total Graded
234
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
701
PSA 9 (Mint)
15.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
234
15.0%
PSA 9
701
44.9%
PSA 8.5
124
7.9%
PSA 8
187
12.0%
PSA 7
156
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
34
2.2%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
660
Total Graded
5
BGS 10 (Black Label)
142
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
21.5%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
5
0.8%
BGS 10(Pristine)
17
2.6%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
142
21.5%
BGS 9(Mint)
250
37.9%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
79
12.0%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
71
10.8%
BGS 7.5-
96
14.5%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$1,504
$1128-$2256
BGS 10
$752
$564-$940
BGS 9.5
$376
$282-$470
BGS 9
$226
$188-$282
BGS 8.5
$169
$132-$207
BGS 8
$132
$94-$169
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
321
Total Graded
43
SGC 10 (Pristine)
87
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
13%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
43(13.4%)
SGC 9.5
87(27.1%)
SGC 9
107(33.3%)
SGC 8.5
48(15%)
SGC 8
33(10.3%)
SGC 7-
3(0.9%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$193
$152 - $242
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$124
$97 - $152
SGC 9 (Mint)
$97
$76 - $117
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$76
$62 - $90
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$62
$48 - $76
SGC 7 (NM)
$48
$35 - $62
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$64
Expected Value
$18 - $78
Value Range
+$26
Potential Gain
-$34
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$80
Expected Value
$-27
Expected Profit
-25%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$183
+$76
PSA 9
35%
$94
$-13
PSA 8
35%
$68
$-39
PSA 7
18%
$57
$-50
PSA 6
7%
$50
$-57
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Negative expected ROI of -25%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.