Chet Holmgren
#2 - Oklahoma City Thunder
2024-25 Flawless Basketball (2025)
BaseModel A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
$50.86
Avg Sale Price
$38.24 - $61.46
Price Range
8
Recent Sales
Price History (Last 60 Days)
- Average
- Sale Price
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Chet Holmgren Base #/50 | $57.42 | 1/24/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Chet Holmgren Base #/50 | $49.83 | 1/23/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Chet Holmgren Base #/50 | $41.05 | 1/22/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Chet Holmgren Base #/50 | $57.21 | 1/10/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Flawless Basketball Chet Holmgren Base #/50 | $61.46 | 1/4/2026 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 560 (45.1%)
BGS: 681 (54.9%)
Market Preference:Evenly Split
Both grading services are popular for this card. Choose based on your preference.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
560
Total Graded
84
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
251
PSA 9 (Mint)
15.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
84
15.0%
PSA 9
251
44.8%
PSA 8.5
44
7.9%
PSA 8
67
12.0%
PSA 7
56
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
14
2.5%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
681
Total Graded
5
BGS 10 (Black Label)
167
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
24.5%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
5
0.7%
BGS 10(Pristine)
14
2.1%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
167
24.5%
BGS 9(Mint)
239
35.1%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
82
12.0%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
79
11.6%
BGS 7.5-
95
14.0%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$568
$426-$852
BGS 10
$284
$213-$355
BGS 9.5
$142
$107-$178
BGS 9
$85
$71-$107
BGS 8.5
$64
$50-$78
BGS 8
$50
$36-$64
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
331
Total Graded
40
SGC 10 (Pristine)
67
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
12%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
40(12.1%)
SGC 9.5
67(20.2%)
SGC 9
116(35%)
SGC 8.5
40(12.1%)
SGC 8
34(10.3%)
SGC 7-
34(10.3%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$302
$238 - $378
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$194
$151 - $238
SGC 9 (Mint)
$151
$119 - $184
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$119
$97 - $140
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$97
$76 - $119
SGC 7 (NM)
$76
$54 - $97
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$62
Expected Value
$18 - $76
Value Range
+$25
Potential Gain
-$33
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$78
Expected Value
$-28
Expected Profit
-26%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$178
+$72
PSA 9
35%
$92
$-14
PSA 8
35%
$66
$-40
PSA 7
18%
$56
$-50
PSA 6
7%
$48
$-58
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Negative expected ROI of -26%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.