SOCCER
Lionel Messi
#1 - Inter Miami
2024 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA (2024)
Gold /50Model A: Deterministic
Print Run50
Verified Sightings11
Publicly Remaining39
Model B: Bayesian
Visibility Factor (f)29%
P(Still Unpulled)100.0%
Expected Remaining32.5
Confidence Score
Medium (58/100)
Coverage: 22 | Sources: 30 | Maturity: 6
$142.08
Avg Sale Price
$107.10 - $185.95
Price Range
12
Recent Sales
Price History (Last 60 Days)
- Average
- Sale Price
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 2024 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Lionel Messi Gold #/50 | $179.52 | 1/22/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Lionel Messi Gold #/50 | $120.88 | 1/22/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Lionel Messi Gold #/50 | $146.68 | 1/13/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Lionel Messi Gold #/50 | $185.95 | 1/11/2026 | View |
| 2024 2024 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Lionel Messi Gold #/50 | $107.44 | 1/6/2026 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 548 (48.1%)
BGS: 591 (51.9%)
Market Preference:Evenly Split
Both grading services are popular for this card. Choose based on your preference.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
548
Total Graded
126
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
208
PSA 9 (Mint)
23.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
126
23.0%
PSA 9
208
38.0%
PSA 8.5
43
7.8%
PSA 8
65
11.9%
PSA 7
54
9.9%
PSA 6 & Below
9
1.6%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
591
Total Graded
3
BGS 10 (Black Label)
159
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
26.9%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
3
0.5%
BGS 10(Pristine)
18
3.0%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
159
26.9%
BGS 9(Mint)
237
40.1%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
81
13.7%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
60
10.2%
BGS 7.5-
33
5.6%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$408
$306-$612
BGS 10
$204
$153-$255
BGS 9.5
$102
$77-$128
BGS 9
$61
$51-$77
BGS 8.5
$46
$36-$56
BGS 8
$36
$26-$46
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
205
Total Graded
30
SGC 10 (Pristine)
43
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
15%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
30(14.6%)
SGC 9.5
43(21%)
SGC 9
72(35.1%)
SGC 8.5
30(14.6%)
SGC 8
27(13.2%)
SGC 7-
3(1.5%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$302
$238 - $378
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$194
$151 - $238
SGC 9 (Mint)
$151
$119 - $184
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$119
$97 - $140
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$97
$76 - $119
SGC 7 (NM)
$76
$54 - $97
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$174
Expected Value
$50 - $213
Value Range
+$71
Potential Gain
-$92
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$217
Expected Value
+$20
Expected Profit
+10%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Consider Carefully
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$497
+$300
PSA 9
35%
$256
+$59
PSA 8
35%
$185
$-12
PSA 7
18%
$156
$-41
PSA 6
7%
$135
$-62
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Marginal ROI of 10%. Consider grading only if you need authentication or plan to hold long-term. Break-even requires 10.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.