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Aaron Judge card
MLB

Aaron Judge

#100 - New York Yankees

2024 Topps Chrome Baseball (2024)

Red Refractor /5

Cards Remaining

All copies documented

Red Refractor
5
Total Print Run
8
Documented
0
Still Available
8 seen (160.0%)0 remaining (0.0%)

8 of 5 copies have been documented.

All copies have been accounted for.

Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced

Model A: Deterministic

Print Run5
Verified Sightings8
Publicly Remaining0
All copies have been publicly documented

Model B: Bayesian

Visibility Factor (f)32%
P(Still Unpulled)0.0%
Expected Remaining0.0

Confidence Score

High (77/100)
Coverage: 40 | Sources: 30 | Maturity: 7

Market Sales Data

$6.77
Avg Sale Price
$0.99 - $125.00
Price Range
50
Recent Sales
TitlePriceDateLink
2024 Topps Chrome- Pick Your Card! Refractors-Parallels-See Pics! Free Shipping!$0.993/15/2026View
2023 Topps Chrome Update Refractor, Pink, Sepia, Prism - Pick Your Card$1.153/15/2026View
2024 Topps Chrome 🔥 REFRACTOR 🔥 Pick Your Card and Complete Your Set! RC$1.293/15/2026View
2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Singles # 1-300 COMPLETE YOUR SET PICK UPDATED$1.293/15/2026View
2024 Topps Chrome Baseball REFRACTORS ONLY (BUY 3 GET 1 FREE) You Pick/Choose$1.453/15/2026View
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 504 (66.1%)
BGS: 259 (33.9%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant

PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.

Grade Equivalency Guide:

  • BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
  • BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
  • BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
  • BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)

PSA Population Report

Demo Data
504
Total Graded
95
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
196
PSA 9 (Mint)
18.8%
PSA 10 Rate

Grade Distribution

PSA 10
95
18.8%
PSA 9
196
38.9%
PSA 8.5
40
7.9%
PSA 8
60
11.9%
PSA 7
50
9.9%
PSA 6 & Below
23
4.6%

Estimated Graded Values

PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25

* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.

View on PSA Registry

BGS Population Report

Demo Data
259
Total Graded
2
BGS 10 (Black Label)
56
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
21.6%
BGS 9.5+ Rate

Grade Distribution

BGS 10(Black Label)
2
0.8%
BGS 10(Pristine)
12
4.6%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
56
21.6%
BGS 9(Mint)
104
40.2%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
45
17.4%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
35
13.5%
BGS 7.5-
5
1.9%

Estimated Graded Values

BGS 10BL
$984
$738-$1476
BGS 10
$492
$369-$615
BGS 9.5
$246
$185-$308
BGS 9
$148
$123-$185
BGS 8.5
$111
$86-$135
BGS 8
$86
$62-$111

* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.

View on Beckett Grading

SGC Population Report

Demo Data
265
Total Graded
30
SGC 10 (Pristine)
69
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
11%
SGC 10 Rate

Grade Distribution

SGC 10
30(11.3%)
SGC 9.5
69(26%)
SGC 9
94(35.5%)
SGC 8.5
35(13.2%)
SGC 8
34(12.8%)
SGC 7-
3(1.1%)
View on SGC Registry

SGC Estimated Graded Values

SGC 10 (Pristine)
$375
$295 - $469
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$241
$188 - $295
SGC 9 (Mint)
$188
$147 - $228
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$147
$121 - $174
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$121
$94 - $147
SGC 7 (NM)
$94
$67 - $121

* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.

Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)

Predicted Outcomes

PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate

Value Analysis

$8
Expected Value
$2 - $10
Value Range
+$3
Potential Gain
-$4
Potential Loss

BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.

Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$10
Expected Value
$-52
Expected Profit
-84%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended

Cost Breakdown

$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance

Predicted Outcomes

PSA 10
5%
$24
$-38
PSA 9
35%
$12
$-50
PSA 8
35%
$9
$-53
PSA 7
18%
$7
$-55
PSA 6
7%
$6
$-56

Negative expected ROI of -84%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.

Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.

Verified Sightings

ImageSerialSourceDateLink
#5/5EBAY1/26/2026View
#2/5YOUTUBE1/26/2026View
#2/5EBAY1/26/2026View
#3/5EBAY1/26/2026View
#5/5YOUTUBE1/26/2026View
#2/5YOUTUBE1/26/2026View
#3/5EBAY1/26/2026View
#4/5PSA1/26/2026View

Community Sentiment

How community odds have shifted over time for active predictions on this card.

Will Aaron Judge PSA 10 average sale price increase by 15%+ in the next 30 days?

Sentiment data will appear as votes come in