Nathan MacKinnon
#3 - Colorado Avalanche
2024-25 Upper Deck Series 1 Hockey (2024)
BaseUnnumbered Card
Print run unknown
0
copies documented so far
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced
Model A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
$1.33
Avg Sale Price
$0.72 - $5.00
Price Range
15
Recent Sales
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| *2024-25 Upper Deck Hockey Series 2 base (#251-450 ) U-PICK LIST * FINAL RESTOCK | $0.72 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024-25 Upper Deck Series 2 Hockey Pick a Card Base #251-450, Inserts, Parallels | $0.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024-25 Upper Deck Series 1 Hockey Trading Cards Select From List Base/RCs/More | $0.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024-25 Upper Deck HOCKEY GAMING CO-OP (BASE/SPECKLE (COMPLETE YOUR SETS) Lower | $0.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
| 2024-25 Upper Deck HOCKEY GAMING FOV BASE/SPECKLE (COMPLETE YOUR SETS) Lower | $0.99 | 3/15/2026 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,555 (79.5%)
BGS: 402 (20.5%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant
PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
1,555
Total Graded
311
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
699
PSA 9 (Mint)
20.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
311
20.0%
PSA 9
699
45.0%
PSA 8.5
124
8.0%
PSA 8
186
12.0%
PSA 7
155
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
-44
-2.8%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
402
Total Graded
3
BGS 10 (Black Label)
82
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
20.4%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
3
0.7%
BGS 10(Pristine)
10
2.5%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
82
20.4%
BGS 9(Mint)
142
35.3%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
50
12.4%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
47
11.7%
BGS 7.5-
68
16.9%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$432
$324-$648
BGS 10
$216
$162-$270
BGS 9.5
$108
$81-$135
BGS 9
$65
$54-$81
BGS 8.5
$49
$38-$59
BGS 8
$38
$27-$49
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
464
Total Graded
69
SGC 10 (Pristine)
106
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
15%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
69(14.9%)
SGC 9.5
106(22.8%)
SGC 9
166(35.8%)
SGC 8.5
69(14.9%)
SGC 8
48(10.3%)
SGC 7-
6(1.3%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$412
$323 - $515
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$265
$206 - $323
SGC 9 (Mint)
$206
$162 - $250
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$162
$132 - $191
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$132
$103 - $162
SGC 7 (NM)
$103
$74 - $132
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$2
Expected Value
$0 - $2
Value Range
+$1
Potential Gain
-$1
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$2
Expected Value
$-54
Expected Profit
-96%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$5
$-51
PSA 9
35%
$2
$-54
PSA 8
35%
$2
$-54
PSA 7
18%
$1
$-55
PSA 6
7%
$1
$-55
Negative expected ROI of -96%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.