Ollie Watkins
#14 - Aston Villa
2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA (2025)
Purple RefractorUnnumbered Card
Print run unknown
0
copies documented so far
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced
Model A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
$8.65
Avg Sale Price
$6.00 - $11.69
Price Range
14
Recent Sales
eBay Price History
Last 60 days of sales data+48.0%
14 sales tracked$6
Low
$9
Average
$12
High
+3
Change
| Title | Price | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Purple Refractor BGS 9.5 | $8.02 | 3/13/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Purple Refractor PSA 10 | $8.88 | 3/13/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Purple Refractor PSA 10 | $10.26 | 3/12/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Purple Refractor PSA 9 | $7.55 | 2/24/2026 | View |
| 2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Purple Refractor BGS 9.5 | $8.62 | 2/17/2026 | View |
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,514 (72.1%)
BGS: 586 (27.9%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant
PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
1,514
Total Graded
287
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
741
PSA 9 (Mint)
19.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
287
19.0%
PSA 9
741
48.9%
PSA 8.5
121
8.0%
PSA 8
181
12.0%
PSA 7
151
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
-88
-5.8%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
586
Total Graded
3
BGS 10 (Black Label)
153
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
26.1%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
3
0.5%
BGS 10(Pristine)
13
2.2%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
153
26.1%
BGS 9(Mint)
231
39.4%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
76
13.0%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
59
10.1%
BGS 7.5-
51
8.7%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$1,488
$1116-$2232
BGS 10
$744
$558-$930
BGS 9.5
$372
$279-$465
BGS 9
$223
$186-$279
BGS 8.5
$167
$130-$205
BGS 8
$130
$93-$167
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
335
Total Graded
41
SGC 10 (Pristine)
85
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
12%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
41(12.2%)
SGC 9.5
85(25.4%)
SGC 9
129(38.5%)
SGC 8.5
46(13.7%)
SGC 8
31(9.3%)
SGC 7-
3(0.9%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$484
$381 - $606
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$311
$242 - $381
SGC 9 (Mint)
$242
$190 - $294
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$190
$156 - $225
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$156
$121 - $190
SGC 7 (NM)
$121
$87 - $156
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$11
Expected Value
$3 - $13
Value Range
+$4
Potential Gain
-$6
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$13
Expected Value
$-51
Expected Profit
-80%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$30
$-34
PSA 9
35%
$16
$-48
PSA 8
35%
$11
$-53
PSA 7
18%
$10
$-54
PSA 6
7%
$8
$-56
Negative expected ROI of -80%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.