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Ollie Watkins card

Ollie Watkins

#14 - Aston Villa

2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA (2025)

Black /1 /1

Cards Remaining

Good availability

Black /1
1
Total Print Run
0
Documented
1
Still Available
0 seen (0.0%)1 remaining (100.0%)

0 of 1 copies have been documented.

1 copies could still be pulled from packs!

Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced

Model A: Deterministic

Print Run1
Verified Sightings0
Publicly Remaining1

Model B: Bayesian

Visibility Factor (f)15%
P(Still Unpulled)88.3%
Expected Remaining0.9

Confidence Score

Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0

Market Sales Data

$2.97
Avg Sale Price
$2.29 - $4.20
Price Range
11
Recent Sales

eBay Price History

Last 60 days of sales data
+23.9%
11 sales tracked
Mar 5Mar 10Mar 15Mar 27Mar 28Mar 29Mar 30Apr 3Apr 15Apr 25Apr 26$2.099$2.699$3.299$4.391Avg: $3
$2
Low
$3
Average
$4
High
+1
Change
TitlePriceDateLink
2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Black /1 PSA 10$4.204/26/2026View
2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Black /1$2.924/25/2026View
2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Black /1$2.864/15/2026View
2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Black /1$2.404/3/2026View
2025 2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA Ollie Watkins Black /1$2.293/30/2026View
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,520 (64.5%)
BGS: 836 (35.5%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant

PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.

Grade Equivalency Guide:

  • BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
  • BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
  • BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
  • BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)

PSA Population Report

Demo Data
1,520
Total Graded
228
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
608
PSA 9 (Mint)
15.0%
PSA 10 Rate

Grade Distribution

PSA 10
228
15.0%
PSA 9
608
40.0%
PSA 8.5
121
8.0%
PSA 8
182
12.0%
PSA 7
152
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
108
7.1%

Estimated Graded Values

PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25

* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.

View on PSA Registry

BGS Population Report

Demo Data
836
Total Graded
5
BGS 10 (Black Label)
203
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
24.3%
BGS 9.5+ Rate

Grade Distribution

BGS 10(Black Label)
5
0.6%
BGS 10(Pristine)
20
2.4%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
203
24.3%
BGS 9(Mint)
328
39.2%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
116
13.9%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
84
10.0%
BGS 7.5-
80
9.6%

Estimated Graded Values

BGS 10BL
$1,488
$1116-$2232
BGS 10
$744
$558-$930
BGS 9.5
$372
$279-$465
BGS 9
$223
$186-$279
BGS 8.5
$167
$130-$205
BGS 8
$130
$93-$167

* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.

View on Beckett Grading

SGC Population Report

Demo Data
757
Total Graded
105
SGC 10 (Pristine)
175
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
14%
SGC 10 Rate

Grade Distribution

SGC 10
105(13.9%)
SGC 9.5
175(23.1%)
SGC 9
292(38.6%)
SGC 8.5
100(13.2%)
SGC 8
82(10.8%)
SGC 7-
3(0.4%)
View on SGC Registry

SGC Estimated Graded Values

SGC 10 (Pristine)
$484
$381 - $606
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$311
$242 - $381
SGC 9 (Mint)
$242
$190 - $294
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$190
$156 - $225
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$156
$121 - $190
SGC 7 (NM)
$121
$87 - $156

* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.

Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)

Predicted Outcomes

PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate

Value Analysis

$4
Expected Value
$1 - $4
Value Range
+$1
Potential Gain
-$2
Potential Loss

BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.

Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$4
Expected Value
$-54
Expected Profit
-93%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Not Recommended

Cost Breakdown

$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance

Predicted Outcomes

PSA 10
5%
$10
$-48
PSA 9
35%
$5
$-53
PSA 8
35%
$4
$-54
PSA 7
18%
$3
$-55
PSA 6
7%
$3
$-55

Negative expected ROI of -93%. The grading cost exceeds the likely value increase. Consider a lower service tier or skip grading.

Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.

Verified Sightings

No verified sightings yet

SlabdeX Predictions

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