Ollie Watkins
#14 - Aston Villa
2024-25 Topps Merlin Heritage UEFA (2025)
Patch AutoUnnumbered Card
Print run unknown
0
copies documented so far
Show detailed probability modelsAdvanced
Model A: Deterministic
Print RunUnnumbered
Verified Sightings0
Publicly RemainingN/A
Model B: Bayesian
Model B requires a numbered parallel to calculate Bayesian estimates.
Confidence Score
Low (0/100)
Coverage: 0 | Sources: 0 | Maturity: 0
$193.21
Avg Sale Price
$158.24 - $232.17
Price Range
3
Recent Sales
eBay Price History
Last 60 days of sales data-18.5%
3 sales tracked$158
Low
$193
Average
$232
High
-43
Change
Grading Service Comparison
PSA
BGS
PSA: 1,522 (79.8%)
BGS: 386 (20.2%)
Market Preference:PSA Dominant
PSA is the dominant grading choice for this card. Consider PSA for better liquidity.
Grade Equivalency Guide:
- BGS 10 Black Label ≈ Ultra-rare (no PSA equivalent)
- BGS 9.5 Gem Mint ≈ PSA 10 Gem Mint
- BGS 9 Mint ≈ PSA 9 Mint
- BGS provides subgrades (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface)
PSA Population Report
1,522
Total Graded
258
PSA 10 (Gem Mint)
715
PSA 9 (Mint)
17.0%
PSA 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
PSA 10
258
17.0%
PSA 9
715
47.0%
PSA 8.5
121
8.0%
PSA 8
182
12.0%
PSA 7
152
10.0%
PSA 6 & Below
-27
-1.8%
Estimated Graded Values
PSA 10
$175
PSA 9
$90
PSA 8
$60
PSA 7
$50
PSA 6
$40
Auth
$25
* Estimated values based on recent sales data. Actual prices may vary.
BGS Population Report
386
Total Graded
1
BGS 10 (Black Label)
113
BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint)
29.3%
BGS 9.5+ Rate
Grade Distribution
BGS 10(Black Label)
1
0.3%
BGS 10(Pristine)
9
2.3%
BGS 9.5(Gem Mint)
113
29.3%
BGS 9(Mint)
161
41.7%
BGS 8.5(NM-MT+)
52
13.5%
BGS 8(NM-MT)
44
11.4%
BGS 7.5-
6
1.6%
Estimated Graded Values
BGS 10BL
$1,088
$816-$1632
BGS 10
$544
$408-$680
BGS 9.5
$272
$204-$340
BGS 9
$163
$136-$204
BGS 8.5
$122
$95-$150
BGS 8
$95
$68-$122
* BGS 9.5 (Gem Mint) is often considered equivalent to PSA 10 in market value. Black Label commands significant premiums.
SGC Population Report
696
Total Graded
89
SGC 10 (Pristine)
145
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
13%
SGC 10 Rate
Grade Distribution
SGC 10
89(12.8%)
SGC 9.5
145(20.8%)
SGC 9
264(37.9%)
SGC 8.5
89(12.8%)
SGC 8
75(10.8%)
SGC 7-
34(4.9%)
SGC Estimated Graded Values
SGC 10 (Pristine)
$484
$381 - $606
SGC 9.5 (Mint+)
$311
$242 - $381
SGC 9 (Mint)
$242
$190 - $294
SGC 8.5 (NM-MT+)
$190
$156 - $225
SGC 8 (NM-MT)
$156
$121 - $190
SGC 7 (NM)
$121
$87 - $156
* SGC's tuxedo holder is popular with vintage collectors. Values based on recent market data.
Crossover Grade Estimator
BGS 9.5
PSA
Crossover Recommendation:Recommended
Success Rate98% (same grade or better)
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10(Gem Mint)
70%
Upgrade
PSA 9(Mint)
28%
Same Grade
PSA 8(NM-MT)
2%
Downgrade
70%
Upgrade Rate
28%
Same Grade
2%
Downgrade Rate
Value Analysis
$237
Expected Value
$68 - $290
Value Range
+$97
Potential Gain
-$126
Potential Loss
BGS 9.5s have a 70% chance of achieving PSA 10, which often commands higher prices in the market. This is one of the most favorable crossover scenarios.
Based on 12,000 historical crossover submissions. Actual results may vary based on card condition and grading standards.
Grading Cost Calculator
$55
Total Cost
$295
Expected Value
+$47
Expected Profit
+19%
Expected ROI
Recommendation:Consider Carefully
Cost Breakdown
$22
Grading Fee
$15
Shipping To
$13
Shipping Back
$5
Insurance
Predicted Outcomes
PSA 10
5%
$676
+$428
PSA 9
35%
$348
+$100
PSA 8
35%
$251
+$3
PSA 7
18%
$213
$-35
PSA 6
7%
$184
$-64
Break-even grade: PSA 10 or better
Marginal ROI of 19%. Consider grading only if you need authentication or plan to hold long-term. Break-even requires 10.
Estimates based on historical data and market averages. Actual results may vary. Grading fees and turnaround times subject to change.